Solar activity is quiet to moderate this week, with Kp 2–3 most nights, after a minor storm at the start of November. The good news is the moon: it is waning towards the new moon on 9 November, so the evenings are dark, and Wednesday night, clear in the north and east, looks like the best chance.
Solar activity this week
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecast issued on 1 November at 12:30 UTC reported a geomagnetic storm reaching Kp 6 (G2) in the previous 24 hours, from a coronal hole high-speed stream, with activity easing to a peak of Kp 3 on Monday 2 November and Kp 2 on Tuesday 3 November.
NOAA's 27-day outlook, issued on 26 October, gives a maximum Kp of 2 on 4 November, Kp 3 on 5, 6 and 7 November, Kp 2 on 8 November and Kp 4 on 9 November. Outlooks this far ahead are rough. In Iceland the aurora can still show at Kp 2–3 on a clear, dark night, so these are workable nights, not hopeless ones.
Darkness and the moon
On 2 November the sun sets in Reykjavík at 17:07 and twilight ends at 18:01. By 8 November sunset is at 16:48 and twilight ends at 17:45. Aurora tours usually leave between 20:30 and 22:30, when the sky is fully dark.
The moon passed last quarter on 1 November and is shrinking every night: 43% lit on 2 November and only 1% on 8 November, before the new moon on 9 November. On most nights it rises well after the tours have gone out, so the evening sky is as dark as it gets all month.
Cloud cover: the best nights this week
Cloud decides whether you see the lights. Based on the Icelandic Met Office forecasts issued on 1 November at 20:55 and 2 November at 03:32:
- Monday 2: southerly winds, drizzle or rain at times in the south and west, dry elsewhere and mild. The north and east are the better bet, with Kp up to 3.
- Tuesday 3: rain in the south and west in the morning, turning to lighter south-west winds and showers, first in the far west, dry in the north-east. Low activity (Kp 2).
- Wednesday 4: partly cloudy with scattered showers, clear in the north-east and east. The clearest night of the week, especially around Akureyri and the north, though activity is low.
- Thursday 5: rain at times, little in the north-east, becoming less wet in the afternoon. A possible night if the cloud breaks in the evening, with Kp 3 forecast.
- Friday 6: partly cloudy, with rain from the afternoon but mostly bright in the east.
- Saturday 7: rain, but mostly dry in the north-east and east. Fairly mild.
- Sunday 8: cooling, with snow showers in the west. Showery weather can leave clear gaps between the clouds, and the moon is almost gone.
How to read the forecast
Check the Icelandic Met Office aurora forecast each afternoon. It shows a cloud cover map, where white is cloud and green is clear sky, and an activity scale from 0 to 9. Clear sky matters far more than a high number. Forecasts more than two days ahead are rough, so keep a few nights free and decide on the day. Our tour guides do the same every afternoon and only go out when there is a real chance.
For more on when and where to look, read our Northern Lights guide and our guide to the Northern Lights in Reykjavík. Planning a winter trip? See our 5-day winter itinerary and our guide to an Iceland honeymoon.
Northern Lights tours this week
A tour takes you away from city lights to wherever the cloud is thinnest. Browse all our Northern Lights tours, or pick one of these:
- Northern Lights Minibus tour from Reykjavík: a small group leaving at 20:30, 21:30 or 22:30, for 3–5 hours, from 13,990 ISK per person. If you see no lights you can rebook for free on the regular Northern Lights bus tour on another night.
- Northern Lights Private Tour: your own guide and vehicle from your Reykjavík accommodation for 4–5 hours, from 80,000 ISK per vehicle for one to four people. If the weather stops the tour, you choose a new date or a full refund.
- Northern Lights Luxury Yacht Cruise: from Reykjavík's Old Harbour with an indoor lounge and outdoor deck, from 12,990 ISK per person.
- Akureyri Northern Lights tour: if you are in the north, where Wednesday looks clearest.
- 5 Day Iceland Itinerary with Northern Lights, Ice Cave and Glacier Lagoon: five nights of chances, with an aurora tour, an ice cave and the South Coast. For longer trips, see our winter Ring Road tours.
Questions people ask
Will I see the Northern Lights in Iceland this week?
There is a fair chance on clear nights. Activity is Kp 2–3 most nights, the moon is almost new, and Wednesday 4 November looks clearest, in the north and east.
What Kp do you need to see the Northern Lights in Iceland?
Iceland sits under the auroral oval, so Kp 2–3 is often enough on a clear, dark night. Higher numbers bring brighter and wider displays.
Does the moon affect the Northern Lights this week?
Very little. The moon is waning to the new moon on 9 November and rises late, so the evenings are dark.
